Lower inflation, continued job creation, and the anticipated benefits of the recent cut in the federal funds rate provide a foundation for optimism about the U.S. economy. In the lodging sector, as different markets and segments continue to post varying results, we anticipate the overall trend of positive, albeit muted, growth to persist in the near term.
Mixed messages abound these days, comprising some bright spots, some not so bright spots, and some challenges. With no coherent theme, the greatest challenge may be developing a forecast for the industry as a whole. But we are undaunted and herewith present our current expectations for the U.S. lodging industry.
With inflation decelerating, fears of a recession receding, and supply growth muted, the overall outlook for U.S. hotel metrics in 2024 is one of modest, steady growth. The investment market is also showing increased signs of life, as inflationary concerns are diminishing and interest rates are improving modestly.
This article shares our main takeaways from the highly attended 2023 Lodging Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. It was an incredible gathering for our industry, with great ideas and insights shared, deals done, and friendships strengthened. We look forward to next year’s event!
A strong RevPAR rebound in the first quarter of 2023 was stalled by increasing costs of capital, inflationary pressures, outflow of domestic demand with limited international infill, and economic concerns. How can hoteliers expect 2023 to end and the next few years to trend? This article presents our latest forecast and insights.
After a full RevPAR recovery in 2022, recessionary concerns and the capital markets are causing headwinds for the industry. What can hoteliers expect in 2023 and beyond? This article presents our latest forecast and insights.
Although current capital market terms are putting downward pressure on values, the full impact of these conditions is tempered by the expectation of a return to more favorable terms in the relatively near future. The opportunity to refinance in the near-to-mid term provides an equity investor with a return of a portion of their initial investment, which supports a lower blended discount rate—and higher value—than indicated by a weighted average cost of capital based on current mortgage terms.
The Washington, D.C. metropolitan area hotels have been more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic than many other major markets across the United States. Will recent disruptors derail a market typically regarded as well insulated and historically poised for growth? What will the recovery look like?
The New York City borough of Manhattan has historically been among the strongest, most diverse, and most dynamic hotel markets in the world. Now almost one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, sustained business closures in New York City have resulted in little to no improvement in lodging performance since the pandemic began. When will New York begin to see meaningful recovery, and how long before the lodging performance returns to pre-pandemic levels?
The COVID-19 pandemic and the related restrictions on travel, business activity, and individual movement are having an unprecedented impact on our industry and economy. Hotel owners, operators, lenders, and investors are all facing greater challenges than ever anticipated, as they grapple with plummeting occupancy, average rate (ADR), and RevPAR and seek solutions to mitigate the impact on EBITDA.